| Year | Strat | MCFTR | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026* | -11.8% | -10.3% | -1.5% |
RU banks and financials ranked by our own potential model — the same upside shown on each company page (normalised earnings power against a fair price-to-book), with a governance adjustment. Only positive-potential names qualify; the top of the ranking is held equal-weighted and refreshed as the potentials update. The score column is each name modelled upside; the weight is simply equal (1/N) across the book.
| Period | Strategy | MCFTR | vs index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day | -2.6% | +0.6% | -3.2% |
| Week | -3.0% | -0.1% | -2.9% |
| Month | -1.1% | -1.3% | +0.2% |
| # | Holding | Weight | Day | potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SVCB modelled upside +49% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); weight proportional to potential, capped at 2x equal. | 22.9% | +0.6% | 49% |
| 2 | DOMRF modelled upside +30% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); weight proportional to potential, capped at 2x equal. | 13.8% | -1.6% | 30% |
| 3 | SBER modelled upside +28% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); weight proportional to potential, capped at 2x equal. | 12.9% | -1.3% | 28% |
| 4 | VTBR modelled upside +24% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); weight proportional to potential, capped at 2x equal. | 11.1% | -3.6% | 24% |
| 5 | RENI modelled upside +23% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); weight proportional to potential, capped at 2x equal. | 10.6% | -0.4% | 23% |
| 6 | MBNK modelled upside +22% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); weight proportional to potential, capped at 2x equal. | 10.4% | -3.1% | 22% |
| 7 | BSPB modelled upside +20% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); weight proportional to potential, capped at 2x equal. | 9.1% | -3.8% | 20% |
| 8 | T modelled upside +20% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); weight proportional to potential, capped at 2x equal. | 9.0% | -3.4% | 20% |
| Rebalance | Signal | Holding | Price (RUB) | Weight | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026 | Buy | SVCB Sovcombank modelled upside +49% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); weight proportional to potential, capped at 2x equal. | 10.21 | 22.9% | — |
| Sell | MOEX dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 17%) | 155.68 | — | +3.5% | |
| 17 Aug 2026 | Buy | MOEX modelled upside +17% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); weight proportional to potential, capped at 2x equal. | 150.39 | 9.4% | — |
| Sell | SVCB Sovcombank dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 77%) | 9.94 | — | -10.7% | |
| 13 Aug 2026 | Buy | T TBank modelled upside +20% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); weight proportional to potential, capped at 2x equal. | 264.90 | 8.8% | — |
| Sell | MOEX dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 17%) | 153.15 | — | -2.5% | |
| 31 Jul 2026 | Buy | MOEX modelled upside +17% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); weight proportional to potential, capped at 2x equal. | 157.11 | 8.0% | — |
| Sell | SFIN SFI Holding dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 61%) | 486.60 | — | +10.9% | |
| 11 Jul 2026 | Buy | SFIN SFI Holding modelled upside +61% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); equal weight 12.5%. | 438.80 | 12.5% | — |
| Sell | T TBank dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 18%) | 248.30 | — | -6.7% | |
| 27 Jun 2026 | Buy | DOMRF DOM.RF modelled upside +27% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); equal weight 12.5%. | 2 202 | 12.5% | — |
| Buy | T TBank modelled upside +18% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); equal weight 12.5%. | 266.02 | 12.5% | — | |
| Sell | MOEX dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 17%) | 163.56 | — | -4.9% | |
| Sell | ZAYM Zaymer dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 12%) | 137.00 | — | -4.9% | |
| 19 Jun 2026 | Buy | ZAYM Zaymer modelled upside +12% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); equal weight 12.5%. | 144.05 | 12.5% | — |
| Sell | CARM CarMoney dropped out of the top ranking (entry score was 24%) | 0.976 | — | -6.2% | |
| 17 Jun 2026 initial book | Buy | SVCB Sovcombank modelled upside +86% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); equal weight 12.5%. | 11.13 | 12.5% | — |
| Buy | SBER Sberbank modelled upside +28% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); equal weight 12.5%. | 319.18 | 12.5% | — | |
| Buy | VTBR Bank VTB modelled upside +27% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); equal weight 12.5%. | 78.81 | 12.5% | — | |
| Buy | BSPB Bank Sankt-Peterburg modelled upside +27% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); equal weight 12.5%. | 297.34 | 12.5% | — | |
| Buy | CARM CarMoney modelled upside +24% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); equal weight 12.5%. | 1.041 | 12.5% | — | |
| Buy | MBNK MTS Bank modelled upside +22% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); equal weight 12.5%. | 1 180 | 12.5% | — | |
| Buy | RENI Renessans modelled upside +21% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); equal weight 12.5%. | 84.52 | 12.5% | — | |
| Buy | MOEX modelled upside +17% (our bank model: normalised earnings power vs a fair price-to-book); equal weight 12.5%. | 172.04 | 12.5% | — |
Prices are the frozen close on the signal date — the price at which the live paper-book starts (buy) or stops (sell) holding the position. Sell result is the price change from the position's own buy signal, dividends not included.