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Phosagro (PHOR) RUB

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Revenue growing (+13%)✓Profit growing (+35%)✗Margins compressing (35%→31%)

Sector: Chemicals

RU_PHOR

Price chart

5 320 RUBDay -0.49%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
5 320 RUB · -0.49%
Market cap
688.9 bn RUB

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
-17.5%
Δ EBITDA y/y
-44.0%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
10.3x
3y avg: 9.0x
P/B (FY)
2.9x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
6.6x
3y avg: 6.4x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
9.3x

Cash return

Dividend yield
6.3%
FCF yield (LTM)
6.6%

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)
+34.7%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (MOEX)
602.1 mln RUB

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Amounts: USD (converted) · As reported
Converted modes use NBK / ECB-linked rates: balance sheet date for BS items, period average for P&L and cash flow (see filing row evidence). As reported keeps each row in its filing currency.

Financial results

Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueB RUBOperating profitB RUBD&AB RUBEBITDAB RUBNet profitB RUBOperating CFB RUBCapex + M&AB RUBAssetsB RUBEquityB RUBROE (annualized)Net debtB RUBSource
2026-03-31Q1 2026 (3M)OK131.5
y/y -17.5%
16.2
y/y -58.2%
11.1
y/y 11.2%
27.3
y/y -44.0%
0.2
y/y -99.5%
16.2-17.9676.3
y/y 14.5%
243.6
y/y 14.7%
0.4%326.2Report (PDF)
2025-12-31Q4 2025 (3M)OK131.9
y/y -3.5%
20.3
y/y -54.8%
10.4
y/y 20.2%
30.7
y/y -42.7%
18.6
y/y -5.6%
20.3-19.6663.9
y/y 12.1%
239.8
y/y 45.6%
49.8%320.5Report (PDF)
2025-09-30Q3 2025 (3M)OK143.2
y/y 10.6%
40.5
y/y 2.3%
10.6
y/y 13.1%
51.1
y/y 4.4%
20.1
y/y 77.6%
40.5-15.7613.7
y/y 2.7%
219.3
y/y 36.0%
12.0%304.2Report (PDF)
2025-06-30Q2 2025 (3M)OK139.2
y/y 13.8%
36.0
y/y 37.4%
9.8
y/y 4.9%
45.8
y/y 28.9%
27.9
y/y -19.7%
36.0-15.2597.1
y/y 1.4%
229.0
y/y 38.7%
50.5%245.7Report (PDF)
2025-03-31Q1 2025 (3M)OK159.4
y/y 33.6%
38.8
y/y 30.2%
10.0
y/y 8.0%
48.8
y/y 25.0%
47.7
y/y 154.1%
38.8-16.8590.9
y/y 10.4%
212.4
y/y 24.7%
101.1%262.9Report (PDF)
2024-12-31Q4 2024 (3M)OK136.7
y/y 22.6%
44.9
y/y 89.0%
8.6
y/y 5.2%
53.5
y/y 67.4%
19.7
y/y -33.1%
44.9-20.5592.5
y/y 12.7%
164.7
y/y 8.7%
51.8%345.3Report (PDF)
2024-09-30Q3 2024 (3M)OK129.5
y/y 11.5%
39.6
y/y -14.4%
9.4
y/y 12.0%
48.9
y/y -10.4%
11.3
y/y -25.7%
39.6-18.9597.8
y/y 20.7%
161.3
y/y 0.8%
9.3%272.7Report (PDF)
2024-06-30Q2 2024 (3M)OK122.3
y/y 26.6%
26.2
y/y -21.1%
9.3
y/y 17.9%
35.5
y/y -13.6%
34.7
y/y 158.3%
26.2-20.6588.7
y/y 23.8%
165.1
y/y 14.1%
82.8%209.7Report (PDF)
2024-03-31Q1 2024 (3M)OK119.3
y/y 2.7%
29.8
y/y -37.3%
9.3
y/y 18.3%
39.1
y/y -29.5%
18.8
y/y -33.2%
29.8-15.2535.1
y/y 5.5%
170.4
y/y 2.9%
46.6%256.2Report (PDF)
2023-12-31Q4 2023 (3M)OK111.4
y/y —
23.7
y/y —
8.2
y/y —
31.9
y/y —
29.4
y/y —
23.7-24.1525.6
y/y —
151.6
y/y —
55.3%273.1Report (PDF)
2023-09-30Q3 2023 (3M)OK116.1
y/y —
46.2
y/y —
8.4
y/y —
54.6
y/y —
15.3
y/y —
46.2-14.2495.2
y/y —
160.0
y/y —
13.4%227.5Report (PDF)
2023-06-30Q2 2023 (3M)OK96.6
y/y —
33.2
y/y —
7.9
y/y —
41.1
y/y —
13.4
y/y —
33.2-15.5475.6
y/y —
144.7
y/y —
34.7%244.3Report (PDF)
2023-03-31Q1 2023 (3M)OK116.2
y/y —
47.6
y/y —
7.8
y/y —
55.4
y/y —
28.1
y/y —
47.6-10.4507.0
y/y —
165.6
y/y —
—142.1Report (PDF)

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2026-03-31

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)200 974
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)146 245
− Cash & equivalents21 004
Net debt326 215

Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 2.1x

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values (₽ mln)

050 000100 000150 0002023 q42024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q1

Year-over-year change

-50%0%50%2023 q42024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q1

Cash flow

FCF (₽ mln)

-20 000020 00040 0002023 q42024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q1

Net debt / cash (₽ mln)

0100 000200 000300 0002023 q42024 q12024 q22024 q32024 q42025 q12025 q22025 q32025 q42026 q1

Profit and cash

Profit is cash-backed
In a typical year of 2021–2025 operating cash flow came to 1.27x of reported net profit; after capex, 0.90x.
year20212022202320242025
cash flow / profit1.27x1.24x1.75x1.66x1.19x
accruals, % of assets-8.5%-9.6%-12.3%-9.4%-3.2%
Last twelve months (to 2025-Q2): 1.69x of profit came back as operating cash flow.
net debt / EBITDA 1.9x · EBIT covers interest 5.7x · capex 1.9x of depreciation · dividends 64% of free cash flow
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Operating statistics

Production indicators — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

PeriodAgrochemicals, total
млн т		Phosphate-based & feed
млн т		Nitrogen-based
млн т		Agrochemical sales
млн т
9M 2025-099.157.02——
FY 2024-1211.80
+4.4%		8.90
+6.0%		2.60
+0.0%		11.90
FY 2023-1211.308.402.60—

ФосАгро, операционные и финансовые результаты за 2024 г. (phosagro.com, 13 фев. 2025): производство агрохимической продукции 11,8 млн т (+4,3% г/г), в т.ч. фосфорные удобрения и кормовые фосфаты 8,9 млн т (+5,8%), азотные удобрения 2,6 млн т (-0,5%); продажи агрохимии 11,9 млн т (+4,1%). 2023 г. — сравнительные данные того же релиза. Промежуточно 9М2025 (релиз 20 ноя. 2025): выпуск 9,15 млн т (+4,3% г/г), фосфорные 7,02 млн т (+5,5%).

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Fertilizers / Phosphate

Annual production
12.20 Mt
2025

Production, Mt

11.30202311.80202412.202025

Production

YearProduction, Mt
202512.20
+3.4%
202411.80
+4.4%
202311.30

PhosAgro FY2025 results (phosagro.com): agrochemical product output 12.2 Mt (+4% YoY); reported cumulative YTD (Q1 3.11, H1 6.12, 9M 9.15 Mt -> implied Q4 ~3.05). FY2024 11.8 Mt. Apatite ore reserves disclosed as ore tonnage only.

Key-commodity price — DAP China

Current 794spot vs LTM +15%

Commodity price upside

The same staged build as the commodity players: revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA (min of the spot case and the spot/3-yr average) → target market cap at the 3-year historical (p75) EV/EBITDA. Cash costs are indexed by RU inflation (~7%); a pure producer has no commodity cost driver to re-price.

USD/RUB: spot 86 vs LTM-avg 78 → ×1.09 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is).

Upside (conservative): +35% · spot +60% · 3-yr +10%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (latest FY)
Revenue573.6 bln RUB
EBITDA176.3 bln RUB
Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)397.3 bln RUB
2 · Revenue projection
Multiplier — spot×1.16 (+16%)
= Spot revenue667.9 bln RUB
Multiplier — 3-yr prices×1.06 (+6%)
= 3-yr-price revenue605.3 bln RUB
3 · Cost projection (+ RU inflation ~5%)
Cost multiplier×1.05 (+5%)
= Cash costs417.2 bln RUB
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA250.7 bln RUB
= 3-yr-price EBITDA188.1 bln RUB
= Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2219.4 bln RUB
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr))219.4 bln RUB
5 · Valuation → target market cap
EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75)6.4x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA1.40 trn RUB
Net debt331.8 bln RUB
Target market cap = EV − net debt1.07 trn RUB
Current market cap791.2 bln RUB

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +35%

Product prices — move vs the LTM average; the 'RUB' columns include the USD/RUB move.

CommodityRevenue shareSpotLTM avg$ vs LTMRUB vs LTM (FX)RUB 3-yr (FX)
DAP China32%794.00688.45+15%+26%+8%
North America Fertilizer Index28%746.86674.78+11%+21%+6%
Urea (FOB China)11%400.00409.65-2%+7%+4%
AN (Black Sea)4%643.57521.29+23%+35%+21%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth steady →
Last-year revenue growth +13% vs +15% the year before — a -2.3 pp move. 3-year CAGR +0%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 -23% · 2024 +15% · 2025 +13%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

Dividend potential

Dividend-model upside: -27%

The payout is forecast from smoothed profit × payout ratio, capped by free cash flow (developers exempt — escrow) and floored at the recent actual dividend (companies hold payouts while profitable). Fair yield = key rate + the historical yield-spread to the rate (so growers that historically traded below the rate score higher). Upside = fair price / current − 1.

1 · Forecast dividend (per policy)
Smoothed net profit (median YTD-ann./LTM/FY)67 bn RUB
Payout ratio72%
Free cash flow (FY, OCF − capex) — not a cap (leverage 1.9x)68 bn RUB
Recent actual dividend (3-yr median)387.00 ₽
= Forecast dividend per share387.00 ₽
2 · Fair yield (spread to key rate)
CBR key rate14.0%
Historical yield spread to rate (3-yr median)-7.8 pp
= Fair dividend yield10.5%
3 · Valuation → upside
Current price5346 ₽
Forecast dividend yield7.2%
Fair price (dividend-based)3877 ₽

Forecast, not investment advice. Earnings annualization and policy assumptions are estimates.

Dividend history

Paid, trailing 12-mo: 387.00 RUB/sh · 7.2%

Pay yearDividend /sh
2025474.00 ₽
2024552.00 ₽
20231020.00 ₽
20221098.00 ₽
2021558.00 ₽
2020300.00 ₽
2019249.00 ₽
2018105.00 ₽
Payments by period
PeriodEx-date/sh
2025 q32025-09-30387.00 ₽
2025 q22025-06-0687.00 ₽
2024 q42024-12-19126.00 ₽
2024 q32024-09-19426.00 ₽
2023 q42023-12-22291.00 ₽
2023 q32023-07-07264.00 ₽
2023 q12023-03-31465.00 ₽
2022 q42022-12-15318.00 ₽
2022 q32022-09-29780.00 ₽
2021 q42021-12-16234.00 ₽

Dividends

No dividend rows found for this issuer.

Investment-community mentions

Substantive mentions last 7 days: 0, last 30 days: 0 across tracked channels, broker research and shows. 5 passing mentions (digests, calendars) hidden.

Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.

Corporate events

02.07.26AGM / Board★ ▼ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров)
На годовом собрании акционеров ПАО 'ФосАгро', состоявшемся 30 июня 2026 года, был утвержден годовой отчет и бухгалтерская отчетность за 2025 год. Дивиденды по акциям не будут выплачиваться. Также избраны новый совет директоров и ревизионная комиссия, а аудиторская организация на 2026 год - Юникон АО.
30.06.26Material event★ ▼ Информация об иных событиях (действиях), оказывающих, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг
Акционеры ПАО 'ФосАгро' утвердили годовой отчет за 2025 год и не приняли решение о выплате дивидендов. Также был избран новый состав Совета директоров и утверждена годовая бухгалтерская отчетность.
02.04.26Filing★ ▲ Присвоение или изменение рейтинга эмиссионных ценных бумаг эмитента рейтинговым агентством или иной организацией на основании договора
ПАО 'ФосАгро' присвоен кредитный рейтинг 'AAA(RU)' с прогнозом 'Стабильный' для биржевых облигаций серии БО-02-06. Рейтинг был присвоен 02.04.2026 на основе методологии АКРА.
08.07.26AGM / BoardРешения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета)
Совет директоров ПАО «ФосАгро» принял решение о прекращении полномочий действующего правления с 08.07.2026 и избрании нового состава из 3 человек с 09.07.2026. Все члены совета проголосовали единогласно по этому вопросу.
27.03.26Material eventСобытия (действия), оказывающие, по мнению эмитента, существенное влияние на стоимость или котировки его ценных бумаг
27 марта 2026 года истек срок для направления оферт от инвесторов на заключение предварительных договоров купли-продажи биржевых облигаций серии БО-02-06 номиналом 1 тыс. руб. каждая. Облигации размещаются по открытой подписке в рамках программы с регистрационным номером 4-06556-А-002Р-02Е.

Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.

RU equity fund ownership

Disclosed in the top-10 of 5 of 17 funds, ≈98 млн ₽ combined. Last month: trimmed — 3.

FundManagerWeight≈PositionΔ weight m/mDisclosure
GROD ДОХОДЪ Индекс акций ростаДОХОДЪ6.04%11 млн ₽-0.51 pp30.06.2026
DIVD ДОХОДЪ Индекс дивидендных акцийДОХОДЪ5.94%56 млн ₽—30.06.2026
TRND Т-Капитал Трендовые акцииТ-Капитал4.84%23 млн ₽-0.66 pp30.06.2026
SBRI Первая - Фонд Ответственные инвестицииПервая4.54%7 млн ₽-0.53 pp30.06.2026
SCFT Технологии будущегоДоверительная4.46%0 млн ₽—30.06.2026

Source: monthly fund portfolio disclosures (investfunds); NAV is daily. Disclosures list each fund's top-10 only, so absence does not mean no position. Weight changes mix revaluation with trading. Fund flows and betas live in the fund monitor on the RU region page.

Investor reporting (IR): https://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/files.aspx?id=573

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Phosagro (PHOR) — from primary filings.

PhosAgro (ticker PHOR) is a Russian vertically integrated phosphate-based fertilizer producer, involved in the mining of phosphate rock and the production of phosphate fertilizers and feed phosphates.

Frequently asked questions

What is Phosagro (PHOR)'s P/E ratio?
Phosagro (PHOR) trades at a P/E of 10.3x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Phosagro (PHOR)'s EV/EBITDA?
Phosagro (PHOR) trades at 6.6x EV/EBITDA.
What is Phosagro (PHOR)'s P/B ratio?
Phosagro (PHOR) trades at a P/B of 2.9x.
What is Phosagro (PHOR)'s dividend yield?
Phosagro (PHOR)'s trailing 12-month dividend yield is 6.3%.
What is Phosagro (PHOR)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Phosagro (PHOR)'s ROE is 0.4%.
What is Phosagro (PHOR)'s market capitalization?
Phosagro (PHOR)'s market cap is 688.9 bn RUB.

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