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Headwater Exploration (HWX) USD

At a glance: strengths & risks
✓Revenue growing (+63% y/y, Q2 2026)✓Profit growing (+123% y/y, Q2 2026)✓Margins improving (57%→59%, Q2 2026)✓Net cash balance sheet✗Pricier than own history (EV/EBITDA 7.8 vs avg 4.7)

Sector: Oil & gas

COMM_HWX

Price chart

13.41 CADDay 0.22%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
13.41 CAD · 0.22%
Market cap
2.2 bn USD

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
63.3%
Δ EBITDA y/y
71.9%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
15.6x
3y avg: 10.5x
P/B (FY)
4.1x
P/E (ann.)
9.1x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
7.8x
3y avg: 4.7x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
5.5x

Cash return

Dividend yield
3.4%
FCF yield (LTM)
-4.6%

Value creation

to target market cap (spot commodity model)
Upside (potential)
-21.2%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (listing)
11.2 mln CAD

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Financial results

Monetary columns are in M USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueM USDOperating profitM USDD&AM USDEBITDAM USDNet profitM USDOperating CFM USDCapex + M&AM USDAssetsM USDEquityM USDROE (annualized)Net debtM USDSource
2026-06-30Q2 2026 (3M)OK171.1
y/y 63.3%
78.3
y/y 127.7%
21.4
y/y -9.4%
99.7
y/y 71.9%
61.4
y/y 123.4%
96.8-56.7771.0
y/y 7.3%
572.1
y/y 6.4%
44.0%-60.3Yahoo Finance
2026-03-31Q1 2026 (3M)OK128.5
y/y 8.6%
46.1
y/y -5.1%
21.0
y/y -6.9%
67.2
y/y -5.7%
25.9
y/y -25.6%
29.1-36.5739.0
y/y 9.7%
543.6
y/y 7.9%
19.0%-43.8Yahoo Finance
2025-12-31Q4 2025 (3M)OK108.6
y/y —
28.3
y/y —
21.2
y/y —
49.4
y/y —
21.1
y/y —
52.2-43.9726.8
y/y 9.8%
546.4
y/y 12.4%
20.2%-71.1Yahoo Finance
2025-06-30Q2 2025 (3M)OK104.8
y/y —
34.4
y/y —
23.6
y/y —
58.0
y/y —
27.5
y/y —
49.7-29.5718.6
y/y —
537.5
y/y —
21.1%-89.9Yahoo Finance
2025-03-31Q1 2025 (3M)OK118.3
y/y —
48.6
y/y —
22.6
y/y —
71.2
y/y —
34.8
y/y —
48.6-43.9673.6
y/y —
503.7
y/y —
28.1%-85.6Yahoo Finance
2024-12-31FY 2024 (12M)OK451.2
y/y 19.1%
174.4
y/y 31.0%
90.9
y/y 2.1%
265.3
y/y 19.4%
136.9
y/y 18.3%
230.6-165.1662.1
y/y 4.9%
486.1
y/y 5.5%
28.9%-97.3Yahoo Finance
2023-12-31FY 2023 (12M)OK378.8
y/y —
133.1
y/y —
89.1
y/y —
222.2
y/y —
115.7
y/y —
224.8-180.6631.1
y/y —
460.7
y/y —
—-109.6Yahoo Finance

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2026-06-30

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)1
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)1
− Cash & equivalents62
Net debt-60

Net debt / LTM EBITDA: -0.2x

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values ($ mln)

01002003004005002023 FY2024 FY2025 q12025 q22025 q42026 q12026 q2

Year-over-year change

-20%0%20%40%60%80%2023 FY2024 FY2025 q12025 q22025 q42026 q12026 q2

Cash flow

FCF ($ mln)

-2002040602023 FY2024 FY2025 q12025 q22025 q42026 q12026 q2

Net debt / cash ($ mln)

-125-100-75-50-2502023 FY2024 FY2025 q12025 q22025 q42026 q12026 q2

Profit and cash

Profit is cash-backed
In a typical year of 2022–2025 operating cash flow came to 1.84x of reported net profit.
year2022202320242025
cash flow / profit1.75x1.94x1.69x1.94x
accruals, % of assets-17.2%-17.3%-14.1%-14.2%
Last twelve months (to - Q2 2025): 1.81x of profit came back as operating cash flow.
net debt / EBITDA -0.3x
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Research & reviews

Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.

All research →

Operating statistics

Production indicators — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

PeriodProduction
boe/d		Realized price
CAD $/boe		Operating netback
CAD $/boe		Operating cost
CAD $/boe
Q2 2026-0624 567
+10.5%		101.59
+47.3%		65.17
+51.5%		8.27
+11.2%
H1 2026-0624 362
+10.0%		90.47
+19.7%		58.94
+20.9%		8.23
+7.2%
Q4 2025-1224 259
+12.5%		65.20
−17.2%		42.26
−19.1%		7.21
−5.6%
FY 2025-1222 776
+12.1%		—46
−12.2%		7.39
+0.5%
Q3 2025-0922 523
+10.7%		70.12
−13.5%		44.67
−14.4%		7.01
−6.0%
Q2 2025-0622 235
+12.3%		68.95
−21.0%		43.02
−25.4%		7.44
+2.8%
H1 2025-0622 15175.6148.757.68
Q1 2025-0322 066
+13.1%		81.94
+14.6%		52.94
+4.5%		7.93
+12.6%
Q4 2024-1221 55978.7652.247.64
FY 2024-1220 310
+12.6%		—52.407.35
Q3 2024-0920 34281.0952.217.46
Q2 2024-0619 80587.2657.667.24
Q1 2024-0319 51771.4950.657.04
FY 2023-1218 038———

Company reports (PLR coverage review 2026-10-01), extracted with DeepSeek and every number checked against the document text: https://headwaterexp.com/headwater-exploration-inc-announces-2025-reserves-fourth-quarter-production-results-and-operations-update/; https://headwaterexp.com/headwater-exploration-inc-announces-second-quarter-operating-and-financial-results-and-declares-quarterly-dividend-3/; https://headwaterexp.com/march-5-2026-headwater-exploration-inc-announces-year-end-2025-operating-and-financial-results-operations-update-and-declares-quarterly-dividend/; https://headwaterexp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/HWX-2025-MDA-Rev1.pdf; https://headwaterexp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Q2-2026-HWX-MDA.pdf

Production & Reserves

Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

Proved reserves
104.50 mln boe (2P)
2025
Reserve life (R/P)
12.6 yrs
reserves ÷ annual output
Annual production
8.31 mln boe
2025

Production, mln boe

6.5820237.4120248.312025

Proved reserves

YearReserves, mln boe (2P)
2025104.50

Production

YearProduction, mln boeper day, mln boe
20258.31
+12.1%		0.02
20247.41
+12.6%		0.02
20236.580.02

Company reports: https://headwaterexp.com/headwater-exploration-inc-announces-2025-reserves-fourth-quarter-production-results-and-operations-update/; https://headwaterexp.com/headwater-exploration-inc-announces-second-quarter-operating-and-financial-results-and-declares-quarterly-dividend-3/; https://headwaterexp.com/march-5-2026-headwater-exploration-inc-announces-year-end-2025-operating-and-financial-results-operations-update-and-declares-quarterly-dividend/; https://headwaterexp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/HWX-2025-MDA-Rev1.pdf; https://headwaterexp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Q2-2026-HWX-MDA.pdf

Key-commodity price — WTI Crude Oil

Current 94spot vs LTM +30%

Commodity-player potential

Target market cap from conservative EBITDA and the historical EV/EBITDA

Upside: -21.2% ▲ +1.6 pp 1d

Main driver: WTI Crude Oil +31% vs LTM; revenue ×1.28 vs costs ×1.04; EBITDA 265→342; at 6.6× EV/EBITDA → -21%.

Product prices — moves vs the LTM average

CommodityShareSpotLTM3-yrvs LTM, $3y vs LTM
WTI Crude Oil (rev)+93%93.9371.9676.52+31%+6%
Henry Hub Gas (rev)+3%2.953.383.12-13%-8%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (LTM)
LTM revenue513
LTM EBITDA265
LTM cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)248
2 · Revenue projection
Revenue multiplier — spot×1.282 (+28%)
= Spot revenue658
Revenue multiplier — 3y price×1.058 (+6%)
= 3-year-price revenue543
3 · Costs projection
Cost multiplier — spot×1.040 (+4%)
= Spot cash costs258
Cost multiplier — 3y price×1.040 (+4%)
= 3-year-price cash costs258
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA400
= 3-year-price EBITDA285
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg)342
5 · Valuation → target market cap
Historical EV/EBITDA (75th pct, realized earnings)6.6x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA2 248
Net debt-60
Target market cap = EV − net debt2 321
Current market cap2 238

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = -21.2%

Life of mine: 13 yrs — before haircut +3.7%

Spot model vs reported — what the spot model projected (trailing-LTM base brought to the period × the period's commodity-price move) against the actual report, per reported period (quarter, half-year or full year — per the filer's calendar); amounts in USD mln. green = reported above projection, pink = below.

PeriodAct. revModel revΔ revAct. EBITDAModel EBITDAΔ EBITDA
2023 FY379290+30.7%222157+41.4%
2024 FY451369+22.1%270206+31.0%
2025 FY442394+12.2%236206+14.6%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth decelerating ▼
Last-year revenue growth -2% vs +19% the year before — a -21.1 pp move. 3-year CAGR +8%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 +8% · 2024 +19% · 2025 -2%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

EV/EBITDA — LTM vs projected

Projected EV/EBITDA 8.2x · target 75th pct (3y) 7.3x · LTM avg 6.6x

EV/EBITDA (LTM)EV/EBITDA (projected)target 75th pct (projected, 3y)

Peer comparison

Group: Oil & gas. Each peer is shown as it trades and re-priced onto this company's market (global) by the ratio of our coverage medians.

CompanyMarketCap, $bnEV/EBITDAEV/EBITDA, adjusted
Aker BPglobal22.22.8x2.8x
LukoilRussia44.52.2x4.6x
Occidental Petroleumglobal54.55.1x5.1x
GazpromRussia32.32.8x5.8x
ConocoPhillipsglobal156.76.4x6.4x
RosneftRussia51.43.1x6.6x
Chevronglobal378.97.9x7.9x
SantosAustralia19.08.9x8.4x
TatneftRussia20.84.1x8.5x
Gazprom NeftRussia37.04.1x8.6x
Exxon Mobilglobal680.19.6x9.6x
NovatekRussia44.57.8x16.5x
Group median4.6x7.2x
Group average5.4x7.6x
This companyglobal2.27.8x7.8x

Group median 4.6x as traded, 7.2x adjusted; this company 7.8x — a 8% premium.

Group average 5.4x as traded, 7.6x adjusted; against the average this company is at a 3% premium.

At the adjusted group median the market cap would be -7% versus today.

The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 22.2x, Russia 3.8x, South Africa 5.1x, Kazakhstan 6.6x, India 18.5x, Indonesia 4.8x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-01; the company's own is live.

Dividends

Paid (completed)

DatePer shareDetailsStatusSource
2026-09-290.12 CADEx-dividend: 0.12 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2026-06-300.12 CADEx-dividend: 0.12 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2026-03-310.11 CADEx-dividend: 0.11 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2025-12-310.11 CADEx-dividend: 0.11 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2025-09-290.11 CADEx-dividend: 0.11 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2025-06-300.11 CADEx-dividend: 0.11 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2025-03-310.11 CADEx-dividend: 0.11 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2024-12-310.1 CADEx-dividend: 0.1 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2024-09-270.1 CADEx-dividend: 0.1 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2024-06-280.1 CADEx-dividend: 0.1 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2024-03-270.1 CADEx-dividend: 0.1 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2023-12-280.1 CADEx-dividend: 0.1 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2023-09-280.1 CADEx-dividend: 0.1 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2023-06-290.1 CADEx-dividend: 0.1 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2023-03-300.1 CADEx-dividend: 0.1 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2022-12-290.1 CADEx-dividend: 0.1 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)

KASE: status follows wording in the news headline (paid vs intends to pay). Yahoo: amounts are cash dividends per share on ex-dividend dates (UTC calendar date). stockscope.uz (UZ): amounts are per share in UZS by publication date (not necessarily ex-div).

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Headwater Exploration (HWX) — from primary filings.

Frequently asked questions

What is Headwater Exploration (HWX)'s P/E ratio?
Headwater Exploration (HWX) trades at a P/E of 15.6x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Headwater Exploration (HWX)'s EV/EBITDA?
Headwater Exploration (HWX) trades at 7.8x EV/EBITDA.
What is Headwater Exploration (HWX)'s P/B ratio?
Headwater Exploration (HWX) trades at a P/B of 4.1x.
What is Headwater Exploration (HWX)'s dividend yield?
Headwater Exploration (HWX)'s trailing 12-month dividend yield is 3.4%.
What is Headwater Exploration (HWX)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Headwater Exploration (HWX)'s ROE is 44.0%.
What is Headwater Exploration (HWX)'s market capitalization?
Headwater Exploration (HWX)'s market cap is 2.2 bn USD.

See also: The Cheapest Stocks in the World (2026): What Value Investing Says About Buying Cheap · global valuation map