RussNeft is an independent oil producer with fields in Western Siberia, the Volga-Urals region and Azerbaijan, selling crude to Russian refiners and for export.
Sector: Oil & Gas
RU_RNFT
Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.
Shares: connector/market_inputs
Monetary columns are in B RUB, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.
| Date | Period | Status | RevenueB RUB | Operating profitB RUB | D&AB RUB | EBITDAB RUB | Net profitB RUB | Operating CFB RUB | Capex + M&AB RUB | AssetsB RUB | EquityB RUB | ROE (annualized) | Net debtB RUB | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | H1 2026 (6M) | OK | 120.5 y/y 0.7% | 29.7 y/y 38.4% | 3.4 y/y 30.4% | 33.1 y/y 37.5% | 15.9 y/y 34.7% | 27.6 | -11.3 | 371.9 y/y 12.8% | 156.9 y/y 18.4% | 21.1% | 106.5 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-12-31 | H2 2025 (6M) | OK | 98.6 y/y -35.5% | 12.6 y/y -57.8% | 2.5 y/y 1.5% | 15.1 y/y -53.3% | 12.0 y/y -21.2% | 0.1 | -11.3 | 356.6 y/y 1.3% | 144.5 y/y 2.5% | 17.2% | 59.6 | Report (PDF) |
| 2025-06-30 | H1 2025 (6M) | OK | 119.6 y/y -18.8% | 21.5 y/y -45.6% | 2.6 y/y 6.8% | 24.1 y/y -42.5% | 11.8 y/y -68.5% | 21.7 | -14.4 | 329.9 y/y -2.1% | 132.5 y/y 12.2% | 17.3% | 62.9 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-12-31 | H2 2024 (6M) | OK | 152.9 y/y 4.1% | 29.8 y/y 18.1% | 2.5 y/y -69.4% | 32.3 y/y -3.3% | 15.2 y/y 41.5% | 31.4 | -33.8 | 352.1 y/y 9.8% | 141.0 y/y 48.3% | 40.7% | 108.7 | Report (PDF) |
| 2024-06-30 | H1 2024 (6M) | OK | 147.3 y/y 60.2% | 39.5 y/y — | 2.4 y/y -69.1% | 41.9 y/y 489.9% | 37.4 y/y — | 26.2 | -14.2 | 336.9 y/y 8.3% | 118.1 y/y 41.0% | 70.3% | 63.9 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-12-31 | H2 2023 (6M) | OK | 146.8 y/y — | 25.2 y/y — | 8.2 y/y — | 33.4 y/y — | 10.8 y/y — | 43.5 | -13.7 | 320.7 y/y — | 95.0 y/y — | 6.5% | 76.3 | Report (PDF) |
| 2023-06-30 | H1 2023 (6M) | OK | 91.9 y/y — | -0.8 y/y — | 7.9 y/y — | 7.1 y/y — | -4.9 y/y — | 17.1 | -8.3 | 311.1 y/y — | 83.7 y/y — | — | 95.3 | Report (PDF) |
| Short-term debt (incl. ST leases) | 110 |
| Long-term debt (incl. LT leases) | 114 694 |
| − Cash & equivalents | 8 281 |
| Net debt | 106 523 |
|---|
Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 2.2x
Quarterly values (₽ mln)
Year-over-year change
Operating and investing cash flow (OCF + ICF) (₽ mln)
Net debt / cash (₽ mln)
| year | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| cash flow / profit | 1.22x | 10.37x | 1.09x | 0.92x |
| accruals, % of assets | -2.6% | -17.1% | -1.4% | 0.6% |
Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.
Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements
Oil (AB1C1 state-balance reserves as of 01.01.2026)
| Year | Reserves, mln toe |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 573 |
| Year | Production, mln toe | per day, mln toe |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.87 | 0.02 |
РуссНефть: запасы AB1C1 (аналог proved) 573 млн т н.э. по госбалансу на 01.01.2026 (AB1C1+B2C2 = 761; нефть+конденсат AB1C1 467 млн т; сайт также цитирует SPE 2P >200 млн т) - russneft.ru/production/oil/; добыча 2025 = 7.872 млн т н.э. (нефть 6.145 млн т), там же.
Potential discount −52% (factor 0.48)
This company's ranking potential is scaled down by a quality/governance factor from the signals below — de-prioritising 'cheap but problematic' names.
Current 102spot vs LTM +70%
Oil model, two legs: crude and refining. Russian liquids production × Δ(Urals in RUB) gives the crude leg, Russian refinery throughput × Δ(export crack in RUB) the second; volumes from company disclosure. In the spot scenario Brent follows the futures curve and the excess refining margin decays with a 9-month half-life; base prices cover the same period as base EBITDA. Urals is the official price (Ministry of Economic Development, Argus quotes), not Brent minus a fixed spread. The coefficients (30% and 80%) are estimated on a six-company panel, not assumed from the tax rate. Then conservative EBITDA (min spot/avg) → target market cap at the 3-year median EV/EBITDA. The re-rating is suppressed when the multiple fell because EBITDA grew rather than because the price fell — otherwise the earnings growth would be counted twice.
USD/RUB: spot 81 vs LTM-avg 79 → ×1.03 (ruble weaker → more RUB revenue); applied to USD-priced commodities (RUB gold left as-is).
Upside (conservative): +78% · spot +179% · 3-yr -22%
How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → conservative EBITDA → target market cap
| 1 · Reported baseline (LTM to 2026-06-30) | |
| Revenue | 219.1 bln RUB |
| EBITDA | 48.2 bln RUB |
| Cash costs (revenue − EBITDA) | 170.8 bln RUB |
| 2 · Urals oil price ($/bbl) | |
| Spot | $94.8 |
| LTM average | $60.0 |
| 3-yr average | $65.2 |
| Price source | Минэк 2024-05…2026-09 (29 мес.); до 2024-05 — оценка по медиане дисконта 10.89 $ |
| Brent now (for reference) | $104.9 |
| Brent in spot scenario: 12-mo futures average | $98.9 |
| Urals in RUB per bbl — spot / LTM / 3-yr | 7,952 RUB / 4,669 RUB / 5,572 RUB |
| 3 · Export crack (RUB per bbl of throughput) | |
| Spot / LTM / 3-yr | 6,786 RUB / 3,447 RUB / 3,492 RUB |
| Spot scenario: 12-mo average, excess margin decays with 9-mo half-life | 5,642 RUB |
| 4 · EBITDA projection: two legs | |
| Liquids production in Russia, mln bbl/yr · жидкие РФ: факт 2025 (сайт компании, НАНГС) | 45 |
| Refining throughput in Russia, mln t/yr | 0 |
| Coefficients: crude / crack (panel-estimated) | 30% / 80% |
| Crude leg — spot | 37.6 bln RUB |
| Refining leg — spot | 0 mln RUB |
| Price effect on EBITDA — spot | 37.6 bln RUB |
| Price effect on EBITDA — 3-yr | 12.2 bln RUB |
| = Spot EBITDA (LTM + effect) | 85.9 bln RUB |
| = 3-yr-price EBITDA | 60.4 bln RUB |
| = Avg-scenario EBITDA (spot + 3-yr)/2 | 73.2 bln RUB |
| Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg(spot, 3-yr)) | 73.2 bln RUB |
| 5 · Valuation → target market cap | |
| EV/EBITDA (3y hist. p75) | 2.1x |
| Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA | 156.1 bln RUB |
| Net debt (as of 2026-06-30) | 108.0 bln RUB |
| Target market cap = EV − net debt | 48.2 bln RUB |
| Current market cap | 27.0 bln RUB |
Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +78%
Current 2.8x · 3-year 75th pct 2.7x
Group: Oil & Gas. Each peer is shown as it trades and re-priced onto this company's market (Russia) by the ratio of our coverage medians.
| Company | Market | Cap, $bn | EV/EBITDA | EV/EBITDA, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aker BP | global | 26.0 | 3.2x | 1.5x |
| Occidental Petroleum | global | 61.8 | 5.1x | 2.5x |
| Lukoil | Russia | 43.6 | 2.5x | 2.5x |
| Gazprom | Russia | 32.0 | 2.9x | 2.9x |
| Tatneft | Russia | 17.6 | 2.9x | 2.9x |
| Rosneft | Russia | 49.6 | 3.3x | 3.3x |
| ConocoPhillips | global | 182.4 | 7.4x | 3.6x |
| Gazprom Neft | Russia | 33.0 | 4.2x | 4.2x |
| Chevron | global | 420.8 | 8.7x | 4.2x |
| Santos | Australia | 20.9 | 9.6x | 4.4x |
| Exxon Mobil | global | 744.2 | 10.5x | 5.1x |
| Novatek | Russia | 42.6 | 8.5x | 8.5x |
| Group median | 4.7x | 3.4x | ||
| Group average | 5.7x | 3.8x | ||
| This company | Russia | 0.3 | 2.8x | 2.8x |
Group median 4.7x as traded, 3.4x adjusted; this company 2.8x — a 19% discount.
Group average 5.7x as traded, 3.8x adjusted; against the average this company is at a 27% discount.
At the adjusted group median the market cap would be +77% versus today.
The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 20.9x, Russia 3.7x, South Africa 5.0x, Kazakhstan 4.7x, India 18.8x, Indonesia 5.1x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-22; the company's own is live.
No dividend planned
RussNeft pays dividends on preferred shares only (FY2024: USD 100m, RUB 80.45 per pref, record date 17.07.2025; FY2025: record date 16.07.2026, prefs only). Ordinary shares have never been paid; the EI1 ordinary-share figures are the preferred dividend misattributed. There is no dividend potential.
Expected IRR: +33% (bear — … bull +143%)
price in 3 years 215 ₽ (+134% к 91.90 ₽); base — LTM на 2026-06-30 (H1)
| Metric, RUB mln | LTM, actual 12m to 30.06.2026 | 2027 12m to 30.06 | 2028 12m to 30.06 | 2029 12m to 30.06 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 219.1 bn | 320.7 bn | 326.4 bn | 331.3 bn |
| Revenue growth | — | +46% | +2% | +2% |
| EBITDA | 48.2 bn | 77.5 bn | 78.2 bn | 78.6 bn |
| EBITDA margin | 22.0% | 24.2% | 23.9% | 23.7% |
| less D&A | 5.9 bn | 7.5 bn | 7.5 bn | 7.6 bn |
| EBIT | 42.3 bn | 70.0 bn | 70.6 bn | 71.0 bn |
| less net interest | — | 16.0 bn | 12.8 bn | 11.3 bn |
| less tax | — | 13.5 bn | 14.5 bn | 14.9 bn |
| Net profit | 27.9 bn | 40.5 bn | 43.4 bn | 44.8 bn |
| Capex | 22.6 bn | 31.0 bn | 31.6 bn | 32.1 bn |
| Capex to revenue | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% |
| Free cash flow | — | 17.0 bn | 19.3 bn | 20.3 bn |
| Net debt | 108.0 bn | 107.1 bn | 105.1 bn | 102.4 bn |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 2.2x | 1.4x | 1.3x | 1.3x |
| Dividend per share | 0.000 ₽ | 0.000 ₽ | 0.000 ₽ | 0.000 ₽ |
| Yield on current price | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Revenue-growth source | weight | growth: yr 1 · 2 · 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Related-market prices (Oil) Нефть Urals (Brent − дисконт Минэка) 85% → +79%; FX ×1.036; 90% of costs follow price EI1 Commodities_D_Values + курс; Urals = Brent − дисконт Минэка | 82% | +46% · 0% · 0% |
| Realised pace (acceleration/deceleration) LTM YoY -20%; acceleration -12.3pp LTM г/г по отчётности | 18% | -11% · -3% · +1% |
| Exit multiple | EV/EBITDA 2.10x (1.67x…3.08x) |
| No re-rating: min(current 2.8x, three-year median 2.1x). Re-rating to 3.1x on a falling rate is the bull case | |
| Second valuation: discounted cash flow | 696 ₽ (discount 13.1%, terminal growth 4.0%) |
| 78% of that value sits beyond the three-year horizon | |
| Key rate by year | 13.2% · 9.8% · 8.1% (averaged over the 12 months to each model year end, not over the calendar year) |
| Cost inflation | 6.2% · 5.6% · 5.3% |
| Dividend policy | 17% of net profit, capped by cash flow |
| Dividends | suspended — zero in the model |
| Current CPI (actual) | 6.3%, на 2026-09-30 |
| Capex | capex/revenue intensity held at the base level, floored at 80% of D&A: growth may need no new plant, but wear still does |
| D&A | grows slower than revenue — elasticity 0.6: assets outlive the sales they carry |
| Interest | gross debt × (that year's key rate + 1.5pp) less cash yield at 0.85 of the rate. Debt is refinanced at par; free cash after dividends accumulates and cuts net debt |
| Tax | 25% of pre-tax profit when positive; losses earn no tax credit |
| Working capital | neutral: FCF = EBITDA − capex − interest − tax |
| Governance | quality multiplier 0.48 — flags: audit_qualification, curated; no discount to the exit multiple — it is the market's own and already prices this risk |
| Historical forecast check | obs | median error | bias | ±20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8 | 9% | 1.01x | 75% |
| EBITDA | 7 | 32% | 0.86x | 43% |
| Net profit | 7 | 31% | 0.79x | 14% |
The model is anchored at each past reporting date with only the data available then, and its one-year-ahead forecast is compared with the actual. Rates and inflation are actuals, so this checks the operating forecast, not macro guessing.
Independent one-year estimates: eninvs Company_Forecast — 213 ₽; eninvs DividendPrediction — 37.17 ₽; Frontier спот-модель — 164 ₽. Ours on the same horizon — 191 ₽
A forecast, not investment advice. Related-market prices are held at today's level, so the model answers what the business earns and is worth if markets stay here — it does not predict prices.
No dividend rows found for this issuer.
Substantive mentions last 7 days: 0, last 30 days: 1 across tracked channels, broker research and shows.
Sources: Telegram channels (bloggers — blue chip, broker research — green), YouTube shows via transcripts (orange). Tone (▲/▼) is an automatic assessment in the stock's context. Quotes are fragmentary; authors' views are not our recommendations.
| 18.08.26 | Filing | ★ Совершение эмитентом существенной сделки ПАО НК 'РуссНефть' заключило существенную сделку по договору поставки природного газа на сумму 49,5 млрд. руб. (с НДС), что составляет 13,9% от стоимости активов компании. Сделка будет исполняться с 01.01.2027 по 31.12.2056. |
| 30.06.26 | AGM / Board | ★ ▲ Решения общих собраний участников (акционеров) На годовом собрании акционеров ПАО НК «РуссНефть», состоявшемся 26 июня 2026 года, было принято решение о выплате дивидендов по привилегированным акциям в размере 70 млн. долларов США из чистой прибыли в 7,75 млрд. рублей за 2025 год. Дивиденды по обыкновенным акциям не будут выплачиваться. |
| 16.07.26 | AGM / Board | Решения совета директоров (наблюдательного совета) Совет директоров ПАО НК 'РуссНефть' одобрил сделки с заинтересованностью на заседании 16.07.2026, на котором присутствовали 11 из 11 членов совета. Все голоса были 'за', без воздержавшихся и против. |
Source: e-disclosure material filings over the last 180 days; ★ — flagged important by the classifier; summaries are automatic.
Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)
Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Russneft (RNFT) — from primary filings.
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