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Acadian Timber (ADN) USD

At a glance: strengths & risks
✗Revenue declining (-15% y/y, Q2 2026)✗Profit falling (-51% y/y, Q2 2026)✗Margins compressing (13%→9%, Q2 2026)✗High leverage (7.1x EBITDA)✗Pricier than own history (EV/EBITDA 30.2 vs avg 21.4)

Sector: Timberlands

COMM_ADN

Price chart

17.21 CADDay 0.29%

Key metrics

Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.

Market

Price
17.21 CAD · 0.29%
Market cap
228 mln USD

Growth

Δ revenue y/y
-15.4%
Δ EBITDA y/y
-42.1%

Multiples

P/E (LTM)
6.7x
3y avg: 10.3x
P/B (FY)
0.9x
P/E (ann.)
60.4x
EV/EBITDA (LTM)
30.2x
3y avg: 21.4x
EV/EBITDA (ann.)
80.4x

Cash return

Dividend yield
6.7%
FCF yield (LTM)
-3.8%

Value creation

negative target market cap — net debt exceeds target EV (over-levered)
Upside (potential)
-107.2%
↓ details

Liquidity

Daily turnover (listing)
0 mln CAD

Shares: connector/market_inputs

Financial results

Monetary columns are in M USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.

DatePeriodStatusRevenueM USDOperating profitM USDD&AM USDEBITDAM USDNet profitM USDOperating CFM USDCapex + M&AM USDAssetsM USDEquityM USDROE (annualized)Net debtM USDSource
2026-06-30Q2 2026 (3M)OK10.5
y/y -15.4%
0.6
y/y -51.0%
0.4
y/y -16.2%
1.0
y/y -42.1%
0.9
y/y -51.1%
1.7—451.0
y/y 3.0%
254.2
y/y 3.2%
1.5%78.8Yahoo Finance
2026-03-31Q1 2026 (3M)OK17.0
y/y -1.4%
3.1
y/y 1.9%
0.3
y/y 111.6%
3.5
y/y 7.5%
2.5
y/y -0.8%
0.2-0.1454.7
y/y 7.4%
259.4
y/y 9.7%
3.9%78.7Yahoo Finance
2025-12-31Q4 2025 (3M)OK15.8
y/y —
3.0
y/y —
0.4
y/y —
3.4
y/y —
28.5
y/y —
3.3—462.8
y/y 9.5%
262.7
y/y 11.5%
13.8%77.3Yahoo Finance
2025-06-30Q2 2025 (3M)OK12.4
y/y —
1.2
y/y —
0.4
y/y —
1.6
y/y —
1.9
y/y —
0.6-0.1437.7
y/y —
246.3
y/y —
3.2%79.0Yahoo Finance
2025-03-31Q1 2025 (3M)OK17.3
y/y —
3.1
y/y —
0.2
y/y —
3.2
y/y —
2.5
y/y —
-0.9-6.1423.3
y/y —
236.5
y/y —
4.3%77.6Yahoo Finance
2024-12-31FY 2024 (12M)OK84.6
y/y 22.1%
17.2
y/y 18.8%
0.4
y/y 39.8%
17.6
y/y 19.2%
15.8
y/y -27.5%
24.8-6.7422.6
y/y -1.4%
235.6
y/y -2.1%
6.6%69.3Yahoo Finance
2023-12-31FY 2023 (12M)OK69.3
y/y —
14.5
y/y —
0.3
y/y —
14.8
y/y —
21.8
y/y —
7.7—428.6
y/y —
240.7
y/y —
—78.2Yahoo Finance

Net debt structure (leases included, IFRS 16) 2026-06-30

Short-term debt (incl. ST leases)34
Long-term debt (incl. LT leases)48
− Cash & equivalents3
Net debt79

Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 7.8x

Revenue & EBITDA

RevenueEBITDA

Quarterly values ($ mln)

0204060802023 FY2024 FY2025 q12025 q22025 q42026 q12026 q2

Year-over-year change

-60%-40%-20%0%20%2023 FY2024 FY2025 q12025 q22025 q42026 q12026 q2

Cash flow

FCF ($ mln)

-10010202023 FY2024 FY2025 q12025 q22025 H22026 q12026 q2

Net debt / cash ($ mln)

0204060802023 FY2024 FY2025 q12025 q22025 q42026 q12026 q2

Profit and cash

Profit runs ahead of cash
In a typical year of 2022–2025 operating cash flow came to 0.39x of reported net profit.
year2022202320242025
cash flow / profit0.43x0.35x1.57x0.14x
accruals, % of assets3.8%3.3%-2.1%6.5%
Last twelve months (to - Q2 2025): 0.17x of profit came back as operating cash flow.
net debt / EBITDA 7.1x
● In a typical year operating cash flow covered 39% of reported profit (4 profitable years).
● Net debt / EBITDA 7.1x at the last full year.
Read from the reported annual statements: cash flow / profit is the median of the yearly operating cash flow over net profit for the years shown; accruals are (profit − operating cash flow) / assets, the classic gap between what was booked and what was collected. A gap can be growth in working capital, capitalised costs, revaluations or profit from associates — the panel points at it, the statements explain it. Not investment advice.

Research & reviews

Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.

All research →

Operating statistics

Production indicators — supplementary, not part of the financial statements

PeriodTimber sales volume
000s m3		New Brunswick Timberlands sales volume
000s m3		Maine Timberlands sales volume
000s m3		Carbon credit sales volumes
000s credits
Q2 2026-06132.10
−30.8%		113.70
−31.0%		18.40
−29.8%		—
H1 2026-06399.80
−12.7%		339.40
−16.0%		60.40
+11.9%		—
Q4 2025-12277.50
+19.5%		———
Q3 2025-09260.60
−9.3%		———
Q2 2025-06191
−9.3%		164.8026.20—
H1 2025-06457.90403.9054—
Q1 2025-03266.90
+8.1%		———
Q4 2024-12232.30———
Q3 2024-09287.40———
Q2 2024-06210.50——600
Q1 2024-03247——152.10

Company reports (PLR coverage review 2026-10-01), extracted with DeepSeek and every number checked against the document text: https://www.acadiantimber.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Acadian-Annual-Report-2025-VF.pdf; https://www.acadiantimber.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Acadian-2026-Q2-Interim-Report-VF.pdf

Key-commodity price — Lumber

Current 540spot vs LTM -10%

Commodity-player potential

Target equity value is NEGATIVE: net debt exceeds target EV — over-levered at conservative EBITDA, so the upside is negative.

Upside: -107.2%

Main driver: Lumber -10% vs LTM; revenue ×0.96 vs costs ×1.04; EBITDA 9→5; at 11.6× EV/EBITDA → -107%.

Product prices — moves vs the LTM average

CommodityShareSpotLTM3-yrvs LTM, $3y vs LTM
Lumber (rev)+50%540.00601.51604.81-10%+1%
Northern bleached softwood kraft (pulp benchmark) (rev)+25%1 302.131 252.961 340.80+4%+7%

How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → target market cap

1 · Reported baseline (LTM)
LTM revenue56
LTM EBITDA9
LTM cash costs (revenue − EBITDA)46
2 · Revenue projection
Revenue multiplier — spot×0.959 (-4%)
= Spot revenue53
Revenue multiplier — 3y price×1.020 (+2%)
= 3-year-price revenue57
3 · Costs projection
Cost multiplier — spot×1.040 (+4%)
= Spot cash costs48
Cost multiplier — 3y price×1.040 (+4%)
= 3-year-price cash costs48
4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs)
= Spot EBITDA5
= 3-year-price EBITDA9
Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg)5
5 · Valuation → target market cap
Historical EV/projected-EBITDA (75th pct)11.6x
Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA62
Net debt79
Target market cap = EV − net debt-17
Current market cap230

Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = -107.2%

Spot model vs reported — what the spot model projected (trailing-LTM base brought to the period × the period's commodity-price move) against the actual report, per reported period (quarter, half-year or full year — per the filer's calendar); amounts in USD mln. green = reported above projection, pink = below.

PeriodAct. revModel revΔ revAct. EBITDAModel EBITDAΔ EBITDA
2023 FY6951+35.4%3221+54.6%
2024 FY8572+18.0%2533-24.1%
2025 FY6287-28.3%1125-56.4%

Revenue growth & acceleration

Growth decelerating ▼
Last-year revenue growth -26% vs +22% the year before — a -48.6 pp move. 3-year CAGR -4%.
revenue growth by year: 2023 -0% · 2024 +22% · 2025 -26%
The growth-acceleration signal behind the GARP+acceleration strategy — it favours companies whose revenue growth is speeding up and flags those slowing down (the second derivative of growth).

EV/EBITDA — LTM vs projected

Projected EV/EBITDA 12.0x · target 75th pct (3y) 11.6x · LTM avg 26.0x

EV/EBITDA (LTM)EV/EBITDA (projected)target 75th pct (projected, 3y)

Peer comparison

Group: materials (global). Every peer trades on the same market, so no adjustment is needed.

CompanyMarketCap, $bnEV/EBITDA
Barrick Mining Corporationglobal68.15.2x
Valeglobal57.27.0x
Newmont Corporationglobal125.67.6x
Rio Tintoglobal154.37.8x
BHP Groupglobal215.97.8x
Zijin Miningglobal115.88.3x
Agnico Eagle Minesglobal92.08.7x
Freeport-McMoRanglobal100.311.8x
Glencoreglobal85.112.5x
Nucor Corporationglobal53.414.1x
Southern Copperglobal172.717.4x
Wheaton Precious Metalsglobal60.723.6x
Group median8.5x
Group average11.0x
This companyglobal0.230.2x

Group median 8.5x; this company 30.2x — a 254% premium.

Group average 11.0x; against the average this company is at a 175% premium. The average sits 29% above the median: Wheaton Precious Metals (23.6x) skews the group.

At the adjusted group median the market cap would be -96% versus today.

The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 22.4x, Russia 3.8x, South Africa 5.1x, Kazakhstan 6.6x, India 18.5x, Indonesia 4.8x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-01; the company's own is live.

Dividends

Paid (completed)

DatePer shareDetailsStatusSource
2026-09-290.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2026-06-300.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2026-03-310.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2025-12-310.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2025-09-290.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2025-06-300.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2025-03-310.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2024-12-310.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2024-09-270.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2024-06-280.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2024-03-270.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2023-12-280.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2023-09-280.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2023-06-290.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2023-03-300.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2022-12-290.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2022-09-280.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2022-06-290.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2022-03-300.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)
2021-12-300.29 CADEx-dividend: 0.29 CAD per sharePaidYahoo Finance (ex-div)

KASE: status follows wording in the news headline (paid vs intends to pay). Yahoo: amounts are cash dividends per share on ex-dividend dates (UTC calendar date). stockscope.uz (UZ): amounts are per share in UZS by publication date (not necessarily ex-div).

Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)

Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Acadian Timber (ADN) — from primary filings.

Frequently asked questions

What is Acadian Timber (ADN)'s P/E ratio?
Acadian Timber (ADN) trades at a P/E of 6.7x (price to trailing 12-month earnings).
What is Acadian Timber (ADN)'s EV/EBITDA?
Acadian Timber (ADN) trades at 30.2x EV/EBITDA.
What is Acadian Timber (ADN)'s P/B ratio?
Acadian Timber (ADN) trades at a P/B of 0.9x.
What is Acadian Timber (ADN)'s dividend yield?
Acadian Timber (ADN)'s trailing 12-month dividend yield is 6.7%.
What is Acadian Timber (ADN)'s return on equity (ROE)?
Acadian Timber (ADN)'s ROE is 1.5%.
What is Acadian Timber (ADN)'s market capitalization?
Acadian Timber (ADN)'s market cap is 228 mln USD.

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