Sector: Oil & gas
Geography: Argentina (Vaca Muerta)
COMM_VIST
Net debt (table and EV/EBITDA): |short-term borrowings| + |long-term borrowings| + |other financial liabilities| when extracted + |non-controlling interest| when extracted − |cash and equivalents|; amounts in millions of the reporting currency.
Shares: verified/StockAnalysis + Digrin 2026-10-01 (SEC dei last 95.4M at 2023-12-31, +13.5M issued for acquisitions since)
Monetary columns are in M USD, one decimal; scale (K/M/B/T) keeps values readable. For the period (default) shows P&L and cash flow for that row’s reporting window: quarterly amounts when the feed uses quarter-duration facts (typical US 10-Q revenue and income), quarterly cash flows after stripping YTD where only cumulative tags exist, and an implied Q4 on 31 Dec FY rows (P&L: FY minus Q1–Q3; operating / investing cash flow: FY 12m minus 9M YTD to 30 Sep when sourced from SEC builder evidence) so they match 10-Q scale. Some issuers still use cumulative YTD minus the prior row in the same calendar year. As reported shows values stored on each row (e.g. full-year on FY). Balance sheet is always as reported. Source JSON may use millions etc.; conversion uses amounts_unit per row.
| Date | Period | Status | RevenueM USD | Operating profitM USD | D&AM USD | EBITDAM USD | Net profitM USD | Operating CFM USD | Capex + M&AM USD | AssetsM USD | EquityM USD | ROE (annualized) | Net debtM USD | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Q2 2026 (3M) | OK | 1234.9 y/y 102.3% | 546.4 y/y 148.4% | 273.2 y/y 54.4% | 819.5 y/y 106.5% | 333.0 y/y 41.5% | 987.2 | -502.4 | 9310.2 y/y 53.5% | 3335.4 y/y 57.0% | 44.9% | 3543.3 | Yahoo Finance |
| 2026-03-31 | Q1 2026 (3M) | OK | 865.0 y/y — | 216.1 y/y — | 229.7 y/y — | 445.8 y/y — | 107.7 y/y — | 85.7 | -338.2 | 7720.4 y/y — | 2599.5 y/y — | 16.9% | 3403.0 | Yahoo Finance |
| 2025-12-31 | Q4 2025 (3M) | OK | 719.1 y/y — | 213.9 y/y — | 225.1 y/y — | 439.0 y/y — | 85.7 y/y — | 435.3 | -347.1 | 7112.9 y/y 68.1% | 2511.6 y/y 54.9% | 29.2% | 2821.1 | Yahoo Finance |
| 2025-09-30 | Q3 2025 (3M) | OK | 706.1 y/y — | 252.3 y/y — | 210.9 y/y — | 463.2 y/y — | 315.3 y/y — | 303.9 | -335.5 | 6739.3 y/y — | 2407.6 y/y — | 18.6% | 2761.0 | Yahoo Finance |
| 2025-06-30 | Q2 2025 (3M) | OK | 610.5 y/y — | 220.0 y/y — | 176.9 y/y — | 396.9 y/y — | 235.3 y/y — | -9.4 | -496.5 | 6065.1 y/y — | 2124.6 y/y — | 50.3% | 2525.9 | Yahoo Finance |
| 2024-12-31 | FY 2024 (12M) | PARTIAL | 1647.8 y/y 41.0% | 625.4 y/y -1.0% | 437.7 y/y 58.3% | 1063.1 y/y 17.1% | 477.5 y/y 20.3% | 959.0 | -1063.9 | 4232.4 y/y 62.9% | 1621.2 y/y 30.0% | 33.3% | 779.9 | Yahoo Finance |
| 2023-12-31 | FY 2023 (12M) | PARTIAL | 1168.8 y/y — | 631.5 y/y — | 276.4 y/y — | 907.9 y/y — | 397.0 y/y — | 712.0 | -695.7 | 2598.0 y/y — | 1247.0 y/y — | — | 473.3 | Yahoo Finance |
| Short-term debt (incl. ST leases) | 696 |
| Long-term debt (incl. LT leases) | 2 966 |
| − Cash & equivalents | 118 |
| Net debt | 3 543 |
|---|
Net debt / LTM EBITDA: 1.6x
Quarterly values ($ mln)
Year-over-year change
FCF ($ mln)
Net debt / cash ($ mln)
| year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cash flow / profit | 7.92x | 2.56x | 1.79x | 2.01x | 1.11x |
| accruals, % of assets | -20.8% | -20.6% | -12.1% | -11.4% | -1.1% |
Our earnings breakdowns and investment notes on this issuer.
Physical operating metrics — supplementary, not part of the financial statements
oil
| Year | Reserves, MMboe |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 588 |
SEC 10-K/20-F (CIK 1762506), отчёт за 2025-12-31: добыча и запасы основного продукта. Извлечение DeepSeek с двумя проверками — каждое число найдено в тексте самой формы, повторы значений между годами сняты. Обновляется scripts/extract_commodity_ops_deepseek.py.
Current 105spot vs LTM +35%
Target market cap from conservative EBITDA and the historical EV/EBITDA
Upside: +86.4% ▲ +1.3 pp 1d
Main driver: Brent +38% vs LTM; revenue ×1.35 vs costs ×1.04; EBITDA 2 126→2 768; at 6.2× EV/EBITDA → +86%.
Product prices — moves vs the LTM average
| Commodity | Share | Spot | LTM | 3-yr | vs LTM, $ | 3y vs LTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent (rev) | +92% | 105.46 | 76.51 | 80.98 | +38% | +6% |
| Henry Hub Gas (rev) | +4% | 3.14 | 3.38 | 3.12 | -7% | -8% |
How it is calculated — revenue → costs → EBITDA → target market cap
| 1 · Reported baseline (LTM) | |
| LTM revenue | 3 525 |
| LTM EBITDA | 2 126 |
| LTM cash costs (revenue − EBITDA) | 1 399 |
| 2 · Revenue projection | |
| Revenue multiplier — spot | ×1.345 (+35%) |
| = Spot revenue | 4 742 |
| Revenue multiplier — 3y price | ×1.051 (+5%) |
| = 3-year-price revenue | 3 704 |
| 3 · Costs projection | |
| Cost multiplier — spot | ×1.040 (+4%) |
| = Spot cash costs | 1 455 |
| Cost multiplier — 3y price | ×1.040 (+4%) |
| = 3-year-price cash costs | 1 455 |
| 4 · EBITDA projection (revenue − costs) | |
| = Spot EBITDA | 3 287 |
| = 3-year-price EBITDA | 2 249 |
| Conservative EBITDA = min(spot, avg) | 2 768 |
| 5 · Valuation → target market cap | |
| Historical EV/EBITDA (75th pct, realized earnings) | 6.2x |
| Target EV = EV/EBITDA × conservative EBITDA | 17 219 |
| Net debt | 3 543 |
| Target market cap = EV − net debt | 13 757 |
| Current market cap | 7 381 |
Upside = target market cap ÷ current − 1 = +86.4%
Spot model vs reported — what the spot model projected (trailing-LTM base brought to the period × the period's commodity-price move) against the actual report, per reported period (quarter, half-year or full year — per the filer's calendar); amounts in USD mln. green = reported above projection, pink = below.
| Period | Act. rev | Model rev | Δ rev | Act. EBITDA | Model EBITDA | Δ EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 FY | 665 | 439 | +51.5% | 402 | 235 | +71.0% |
| 2022 FY | 1 188 | 928 | +28.0% | 764 | 654 | +16.9% |
| 2023 FY | 1 169 | 977 | +19.7% | 933 | 536 | +73.9% |
| 2024 FY | 1 648 | 1 132 | +45.6% | 1 063 | 886 | +20.0% |
| 2025 FY | 2 474 | 1 460 | +69.4% | 1 567 | 852 | +83.9% |
Projected EV/EBITDA 3.3x · target 75th pct (3y) 7.2x · LTM avg 6.2x
Group: Oil & gas. Each peer is shown as it trades and re-priced onto this company's market (global) by the ratio of our coverage medians.
| Company | Market | Cap, $bn | EV/EBITDA | EV/EBITDA, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aker BP | global | 23.3 | 2.9x | 2.9x |
| Lukoil | Russia | 49.3 | 2.4x | 4.9x |
| Occidental Petroleum | global | 59.3 | 5.0x | 5.0x |
| Gazprom | Russia | 34.0 | 2.8x | 5.6x |
| Rosneft | Russia | 56.3 | 3.3x | 6.5x |
| ConocoPhillips | global | 167.9 | 6.9x | 6.9x |
| Chevron | global | 393.4 | 8.1x | 8.1x |
| Tatneft | Russia | 22.0 | 4.3x | 8.6x |
| Gazprom Neft | Russia | 40.8 | 4.3x | 8.7x |
| Santos | Australia | 19.8 | 9.2x | 8.9x |
| Exxon Mobil | global | 706.0 | 10.0x | 10.0x |
| Novatek | Russia | 45.6 | 7.9x | 15.8x |
| Group median | 4.7x | 7.5x | ||
| Group average | 5.6x | 7.7x | ||
| This company | global | 7.4 | 5.2x | 5.2x |
Group median 4.7x as traded, 7.5x adjusted; this company 5.2x — a 31% discount.
Group average 5.6x as traded, 7.7x adjusted; against the average this company is at a 32% discount.
At the adjusted group median the market cap would be +60% versus today.
The gap and the implied upside are measured against the median: one richly priced peer moves an average, not a median. The market adjustment uses our coverage medians (US 23.5x, Russia 4.1x, South Africa 5.1x, Kazakhstan 6.5x, India 18.6x, Indonesia 4.8x); it is about where a name is listed, not what it does. Peer multiples come from the nightly rebuild of 2026-10-12; the company's own is live.
No dividend rows found for this issuer (checked: Yahoo Finance (ex-div)).
Reporting forms detected in loaded periods: ✓ ✓ ✓ (Balance sheet / Profit or loss (P&L) / Cash flows)
Financial results, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), profitability and dividend yield of Vista Energy — from primary filings.
See also: The Cheapest Stocks in the World (2026): What Value Investing Says About Buying Cheap · global valuation map