Each name is modelled from its latest LTM three years forward: revenue from four independent sources (leading related-market prices, company guidance adjusted for its own delivery record, independent market research and the realised pace of acceleration or deceleration), then EBITDA, profit, dividends per policy, debt and an exit value. IRR is the cash flow: price today → three years of dividends → price in three years.
The EBITDA-error column is the point, not a footnote: the model was anchored at every past reporting date with only the data available then and its one-year-ahead forecast compared with the actual. Where the error is wide, the number is withheld.
Accuracy across the book: revenue median error 10%, bias 0.98x, within ±20% in 68% of cases; EBITDA 18%, bias 1.01x, ±20% in 52%; net profit 32%. Observations: 223 / 214 / 275.
Models: 41, published: 34.
| Issuer | IRR | Price in 3 years | Dividends, 3 yrs | Exit multiple | EBITDA error / obs | Checks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAZP Oil & Gas | +137% +71% … +173% | 1 267 ₽ +1226% | 0.000 ₽ — | 3.28x EV/EBITDA | — | ⚠ |
| RTKM Telecommunications | +75% +18% … +136% | 181 ₽ +349% | 22.38 ₽ 56% | 2.74x EV/EBITDA | 5% / 15 | ⚠ |
| MTSS Telecommunications | +51% +15% … +95% | 409 ₽ +109% | 175 ₽ 90% | 3.55x EV/EBITDA | 7% / 11 | ⚠ |
| SIBN Oil & Gas | +49% -20% … +102% | 1 462 ₽ +160% | 273 ₽ 49% | 3.88x EV/EBITDA | — | ⚠ |
| LKOH Oil & Gas | +47% +8% … +81% | 11 680 ₽ +118% | 3 669 ₽ 68% | 2.34x EV/EBITDA | — | ⚠ |
| MRKP Utilities | +41% +8% … +79% | 0.900 ₽ +82% | 0.330 ₽ 67% | 1.50x EV/EBITDA | 16% / 18 | ✓ |
| VTBR Financial Services | +40% +37% … +60% | 124 ₽ +136% | 13.32 ₽ 25% | 0.40x P/B | — | ⚠ |
| TRNFP Oil & Gas | +39% +20% … +62% | 1 931 ₽ +87% | 620 ₽ 60% | 1.50x EV/EBITDA | 34% / 10 | ⚠ |
| TATN Oil & Gas | +39% -10% … +81% | 1 323 ₽ +111% | 274 ₽ 44% | 2.96x EV/EBITDA | 11% / 9 | ✓ |
| TGKN Utilities | +39% — … +75% | 0.010 ₽ +168% | 0.000 ₽ | 4.59x EV/EBITDA | 20% / 9 | ⚠ |
| VSEH Retail | +38% +15% … +68% | 118 ₽ +69% | 49.54 ₽ 71% | 1.64x EV/EBITDA | 30% / 7 | ⚠ |
| BELU Retail | +37% -14% … +87% | 462 ₽ +82% | 139 ₽ 55% | 3.00x EV/EBITDA | 11% / 9 | ⚠ |
| X5 Retail | +37% -15% … +88% | 2 981 ₽ +62% | 1 116 ₽ 61% | 2.56x EV/EBITDA | 6% / 7 | ⚠ |
| IRAO Utilities | +36% +8% … +71% | 4.48 ₽ +87% | 1.13 ₽ 47% | 1.50x EV/EBITDA | 15% / 9 | ⚠ |
| PRMD Healthcare | +35% +16% … +65% | 978 ₽ +147% | 0.000 ₽ — | 6.20x EV/EBITDA | 29% / 6 | ⚠ |
| BANE Oil & Gas | +32% -94% … +98% | 2 409 ₽ +94% | 349 ₽ 28% | 2.16x EV/EBITDA | 25% / 2 | ⚠ |
| ZAYM Financial Services | +29% +21% … +44% | 179 ₽ +37% | 81.14 ₽ 62% | 0.95x P/B | — | ⚠ |
| NVTK Oil & Gas | +29% -5% … +57% | 1 968 ₽ +83% | 249 ₽ 23% | 8.00x EV/EBITDA | 21% / 6 | ⚠ |
| MBNK Financial Services | +28% +25% … +46% | 1 536 ₽ +65% | 317 ₽ 34% | 0.40x P/B | — | ⚠ |
| SBER Financial Services | +28% +18% … +44% | 414 ₽ +45% | 143 ₽ 50% | 0.77x P/B | — | ⚠ |
| T Financial Services | +27% +19% … +46% | 386 ₽ +46% | 134 ₽ 51% | 0.94x P/B | — | ⚠ |
| DATA Information Technology | +27% +13% … +50% | 161 ₽ +82% | 16.55 ₽ 19% | 4.95x EV/EBITDA | 39% / 5 | ⚠ |
| MDMG Healthcare | +27% +13% … +52% | 2 350 ₽ +78% | 288 ₽ 22% | 6.74x EV/EBITDA | 7% / 9 | ⚠ |
| ROSN Oil & Gas | +25% -57% … +76% | 582 ₽ +59% | 114 ₽ 31% | 3.08x EV/EBITDA | — | ⚠ |
| SVCB Financial Services | +24% +14% … +46% | 16.28 ₽ +62% | 2.36 ₽ 23% | 0.54x P/B | — | ⚠ |
| MOEX Financial Services | +21% +13% … +35% | 184 ₽ +21% | 71.33 ₽ 47% | 1.34x P/B | — | ⚠ |
| DOMRF Financial Services | +20% +11% … +36% | 2 766 ₽ +29% | 778 ₽ 36% | 0.80x P/B | — | ⚠ |
| OZPH Healthcare | +16% +0% … +40% | 63.89 ₽ +43% | 4.81 ₽ 11% | 4.45x EV/EBITDA | 9% / 6 | ⚠ |
| NMTP Other | +11% +1% … +26% | 7.45 ₽ +10% | 1.54 ₽ 23% | 2.68x EV/EBITDA | 7% / 6 | ⚠ |
| IVAT Information Technology | +5% -9% … +26% | 66.86 ₽ -2% | 10.46 ₽ 15% | 3.73x EV/EBITDA | 27% / 5 | ⚠ |
| CNRU Information Technology | +4% -3% … +17% | 524 ₽ -19% | 188 ₽ 29% | 8.00x EV/EBITDA | 16% / 5 | ⚠ |
| AQUA Agriculture & Food | +3% -34% … +43% | 343 ₽ +5% | 15.50 ₽ 5% | 7.15x EV/EBITDA | 28% / 9 | ⚠ |
| YDEX Information Technology | +2% -18% … +30% | 3 781 ₽ -1% | 233 ₽ 6% | 4.89x EV/EBITDA | 32% / 4 | ⚠ |
| NLMK Metals & Steel | -9% -24% … +18% | 54.54 ₽ -25% | 0.000 ₽ — | 2.66x EV/EBITDA | 36% / 9 | ⚠ |
| ENPG Utilities | withheld | 316 ₽ -0% | 0.000 ₽ — | 7.63x EV/EBITDA | — | ✗ |
| FLOT Transport & Logistics | withheld | 21.32 ₽ -74% | 0.000 ₽ — | 2.55x EV/EBITDA | 149% / 6 | ✗ |
| OZON Information Technology | withheld | 7 108 ₽ +174% | 0.000 ₽ — | 3.15x EV/EBITDA | 61% / 5 | ✗ |
| POSI Information Technology | withheld | 1 722 ₽ +69% | 0.000 ₽ — | 6.00x EV/EBITDA | 52% / 10 | ✗ |
| RNFT Oil & Gas | withheld | 177 ₽ +106% | 0.000 ₽ — | 2.66x EV/EBITDA | 46% / 9 | ✗ |
| RUAL Metals & Steel | withheld | 0.000 ₽ -100% | 0.000 ₽ — | 8.00x EV/EBITDA | — | ✗ |
| SNGS Oil & Gas | withheld | 61.95 ₽ +274% | 1.14 ₽ 7% | 1.50x EV/EBITDA | 8% / 1 | ✗ |